Evidential Probabilities and Credences
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Formalizing correct evidential reasoning with arguments, scenarios and probabilities
Artificial intelligence research on reasoning with criminal evidence in terms of arguments, hypothetical scenarios, and probabilities inspired the approach in this paper. That research showed that Bayesian Networks can be used for modeling arguments and structured hypotheses. Also well-known issues with Bayesian Network were encountered: More numbers are needed than are available, and there is ...
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In light of the chance that the plate will be saved by a sudden gust of hot air, what should we say about the truth conditions of the ordinary conditional (1b)? Some theories predict that (1b) is true. For instance, Lewis 1973b says that the plate being saved by friendly air currents is a remarkable low-probability event, and that worlds where such events happen are farther away than worlds whe...
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In response to G.Belot’s (2013) criticism that Bayesian theory is epistemologically immodest, we argue that his analysis is misguided. The topological conditions that we understand underpin his criticisms of familiar results about asymptotic Bayesian conditioning are self-defeating. They require extreme a priori credences regarding, e.g., the limiting behavior of observed relative frequencies. ...
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Due to the uses of DNA profiling in criminal investigation and decision-making, it is ever more common that probabilistic information is discussed in courts. The people involved have varied backgrounds, as fact-finders and lawyers are more trained in the use of non-probabilistic information, while forensic experts handle probabilistic information on a routine basis. Hence, it is important to ha...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
سال: 2020
ISSN: 0007-0882,1464-3537
DOI: 10.1093/bjps/axz043